The coming year promises to be marked by delicate phases that
could be decisive for the future of the Balkans. On an official
visit to the area a few weeks ago, I registered concerns of a
possible flare-up in tensions that are anything but dormant, together
with sincere, widespread hopes that the painful experiences of
the past can be consigned, once and for all, to history.
The main road to a lasting settlement in the Balkans passes
through Kosovo. The start-up of the Kosovo status negotiations,
thanks to the UN secretary general's appointment of a special
envoy, was brought about by a reality that the international community
could no longer afford to ignore: that the post-conflict status
quo is unsustainable and the “standards before status”
formula is impracticable.
This does not mean, however, that its terms can be freely reversed.
Tangible progress in these negotiations is inconceivable unless
progress is made in the area of standards, particularly in connection
with security, the return of refugees, respect for multi-ethnicity,
and the protection of sacred places, which are a cultural heritage
for the world and a sine qua non for the Serbian community.
Kosovars of Albanian ethnicity would thus be wrong to take the
outcome of the negotiations for granted. But so would the Serbs,
in both Pristina and Belgrade, were they to spurn them by refusing
to come up with coherent, realistic and constructive proposals.
The linchpin of any new status is the prospect of integrating
Kosovo into the European Union in the context of a gradual stabilization
of the region. The moment will come when, in parallel to shuttle
diplomacy, it will be opportune for Belgrade and Pristina to engage
in direct dialogue, with the full involvement of the Kosovar Serbs.
In short, Pristina's European aspirations may be the most attractive
way for the Kosovars themselves to give substance to a transition
that promises to be lengthy. Its status could be based on a form
of conditional independence within the framework of a European
guarantee, while awaiting integration into the EU institutions.
A strong international military and administrative presence will
of course have to be maintained to safeguard the specific mechanisms
of economic support.
The same criterion holds true for Belgrade, which is grappling
with the unknown of a referendum on the secession of Montenegro.
Only a Serbia confident in its ability to achieve the goal of
integration into the EU - and into NATO through the Partnership
for Peace - will have sufficient incentives to contribute to the
stabilization of the region. In truth, the door of the EU should
remain open for all the Balkan countries, through modalities to
be established on a case-by-case basis. This is the best way to
guarantee the success of the international community's endeavors.
A certain optimism is warranted in view of recent European Union
measures long advocated by the Italian government. I am referring
to the decisions to start negotiations on an EU associations agreement
with Bosnia, Serbia and Montenegro, as well as recognize the accession
candidacy status of the Former Yugolsav Republic of Macedonia
(FYROM). These negotiations represent further starting points
that will hopefully lead to positive conclusions of their own.
Europe has a specific imperative: to contribute substantially
towards finding the best solution for the future of this region.
“In the Balkans the hour of Europe has come”. So
spoke the foreign minister of Luxembourg in the summer of 1991.
We know all too well what came after this ambitious declaration:
a decade of Balkan conflicts and of dismal European inertia. Fifteen
years later, Europe would be well advised to keep a safe distance
from a rhetoric that is as loud as it is content-free and instead
to take concrete steps toward offering real integration prospects
to a region that is European in every way.
On the strength of its age-old friendship with the countries
of the region and its significant involvement in the Balkans through
policing actions, military presence and economic support, Italy
is ready to do its part.
